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The School of Mathematics and Statistics at UNSW is pleased to announce that Professor of Statistics and Data Science, Scott Sisson, has joined forces with expert counterparts from the University of Adelaide, , and M&C Saatchi, together forming a multiparty research collective supported by the .��

Responding to increasing threats to Australia’s sovereign boarders posed by irregular migration patterns and more sophisticated people smuggling networks, the research collective will forecast irregular migration and model the effects of potential deterrence intervention strategies.

The project – the first dual collaboration between Defence Trailblazer and the two universities – aims to address existing prediction model limitations by developing a dynamic and responsive irregular migration prediction model using machine learning algorithms.

“The model’s predictive capabilities will serve as an early warning system for potential future challenges, allowing Defence staff and decision makers to anticipate and prepare for future needs proactively,” said Professor Sisson.

The project team will create a route-based prediction model, an interface for Defence staff to perform scenario planning, and a platform to deploy media deterrence messaging.

“An ounce of prevention is worth a ton of cure. The prediction model will enable Defence to peer into the future and implement targeted deterrence strategies to continue securing Australia’s maritime borders,” said M&C Saatchi World Services Managing Director Matt Delahunty.

“In the long-term, the project aims to pre-empt threats and shorten detection and intervention times,” said University of Adelaide researcher Professor Lewis Mitchell.

Future customers of the capability include Defence and Government Departments responsible for preventing, deterring and intercepting irregular migration journeys.

Defence Trailblazer Executive Director Dr Sanjay Mazumdar said of the project, “The solution that will be developed will provide greater awareness of the maritime battlespace and improve the ability of Defence and national security agencies to use intelligence to make informed timely decisions to protect Australia’s maritime borders.”

The outcomes of this project are directly aligned with Defence’s Sovereign Defence Industrial Priority of enhancing battlespace awareness and management systems (SDIP 6), as well as helping to reduce the number of victims of human trafficking, in accordance with United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 16.2.2.